2026 全球經濟放緩!孫明德:AI 榮景蛇吞尾巴,泡沫海嘯第一排在哪? | 全新一週 EP193
TechOrange
@tech.orangeAbout
《TechOrange 科技報橘》專注創新科技、數位轉型,致力串連最有價值的科技社群觀點,找出台灣在國際趨勢中的定位。 https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCs-pAaEq43d3ghKpmIx-Fnw?sub_confirmation=1
Latest Posts
Video Description
🔥🔥🔥【2026 AI 人才年會暨 AI 職涯博覽會】立即報名:https://e.techorange.com/mKwq2 🔥🔥🔥【2026 趨勢報告】立即下載:https://e.techorange.com/zunNj 📢本集來賓: ✨孫明德/台灣經濟研究院景氣預測中心主任 📢收聽這集,你可以得知: 一、2026 全球經濟走勢? ✨國際機構普遍預期 2026 年全球成長將較 2025 年放緩,主因是什麼?美國、歐盟、日本、中國、東南亞,大概會怎麼發展? ✨面對聯準會降息寬鬆政策的利多,以及關稅、物價等不利因素,2026 年美國經濟走向究竟是持平、上修還是趨緩? 二、AI 榮景是否持續? ✨AI 相關的外銷與投資在 2025 年佔據台灣和美國主要的經濟成長,甚至超越民間消費,2026 年是否持續? ✨針對「AI 泡沫」爭議,如何區分技術應用與實體投資的持續性,以及金融股票市場可能存在的泡沫化風險? ✨除了激烈的技術競爭(GPU 與 TPU 之爭、邊緣計算、量子計算)、資源的限制(水、電、人才)和數據的挑戰,為什麼 AI 公司在市場上也越來越難取得資金?財報甚至出現問題? ✨AI 科技大廠的投資結構正發生何種轉變?「發債」規模暴增,又對財務造成什麼潛在問題? 三、AI 泡沫「蛇吞尾巴」的警示 ✨AI 融資像是「蛇吞尾巴」(供應商與投資人之間互相交易貢獻營收),揭示了未來金融市場的哪些風險? ✨隨著 AI 被導入公司內部系統(如薪資、採購、應收帳款),將如何影響傳統職位、改變企業的人力需求,並導致「遇缺不補」的趨勢? ✨如果 AI 金融泡沫不幸爆發,參考過去 20 年的經驗(2001 網路泡沫、2008 金融海嘯、2020 新冠疫情),股市修正的幅度底線大概是多少?痛苦期會持續多久?最痛會是什麼時候? ✨面對可能的 AI 泡沫金融海嘯,大家要如何判斷自身資產配置或公司業務是否位於「海嘯第一排」,儘早趨吉避凶? 📢立即下載 TechOrange 科技報橘《2026 AI Impacts 趨勢觀察報告》 ➡️https://e.techorange.com/LXRN7 ------------------- 🔆科技報橘|https://techorange.com/ 🟠Facebook|https://www.facebook.com/TechOrange 🔆YouTube|https://www.youtube.com/@tech.orange 🟠Line|https://lin.ee/O3HSOto 🔆IG|https://www.instagram.com/techorange_tw/
Upgrade Your Everyday
AI-recommended products based on this video

Amazon Echo Show 8 (newest model), With Spatial Audio, Smart Home Hub, and Alexa, Charcoal

Apple AirPods 4 Wireless Earbuds, Bluetooth Headphones, with Active Noise Cancellation, Adaptive Audio, Transparency Mode, Personalized Spatial Audio, USB-C Charging Case, Wireless Charging, H2 Chip

Wireless Earbuds, Bluetooth 5.4 Headphones, True Wireless Stereo Earphones with IPX7 Waterproof, Noise Cancelling Mic, Fast Charging and Comfort Fit Ear Buds for Sports/Workouts - Black

Apple AirPods 4 Wireless Earbuds, Bluetooth Headphones, Personalized Spatial Audio, Sweat and Water Resistant, USB-C Charging Case, H2 Chip, Up to 30 Hours of Battery Life, Effortless Setup for iPhone

Apple AirPods Pro 2 Wireless Earbuds, Active Noise Cancellation, Hearing Aid Feature, Bluetooth Headphones, Transparency, Personalized Spatial Audio, High-Fidelity Sound, H2 Chip, USB-C Charging

Smart Watch for Men/Women, 1.95" AMOLED Fitness Tracker Watches with Bluetooth Calls/Flashlight/100+ Sport Modes Heart Rate/Sleep Monitor Ultra Lightweight Ultrathin Design

Smart Watch for Men Women (Answer/Make Call), 1.96" HD Smartwatch Fitness Activity Tracker, 110+ Sports IP68 Waterproof, Heart Rate/Sleep Monitor/Pedometer/Calories, Fitness Watch for Android iOS
![Apple Watch Series 10 [GPS 46mm case] Smartwatch with Rose Gold Aluminium Case with Light Blush Sport Band - M/L. Fitness Tracker, ECG App, Always-On Retina Display, Water Resistant](https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/61nNNMI1cFL._AC_UL960_FMwebp_QL65_.jpg)
Apple Watch Series 10 [GPS 46mm case] Smartwatch with Rose Gold Aluminium Case with Light Blush Sport Band - M/L. Fitness Tracker, ECG App, Always-On Retina Display, Water Resistant
![Apple Watch Series 10 [GPS 42mm case] Smartwatch with Jet Black Aluminium Case with Black Sport Band - S/M. Fitness Tracker, ECG App, Always-On Retina Display, Water Resistant](https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/6105jZyXyPL._AC_UL960_FMwebp_QL65_.jpg)
Apple Watch Series 10 [GPS 42mm case] Smartwatch with Jet Black Aluminium Case with Black Sport Band - S/M. Fitness Tracker, ECG App, Always-On Retina Display, Water Resistant

NOCO Boost GB40: 1000A UltraSafe Jump Starter – 12V Lithium Battery Booster Pack, Portable Jump Box, Power Bank & Jumper Cables - for 6.0L Gas and 3.0L Diesel Engines

UGREEN Nexode Power Bank 20000mAh 130W Portable Charger 72Wh PD Fast Charging 3-Port USB C Battery Pack with TFT Smart Display for MacBook/iPad/iPhone 16/Samsung S24 and More

ANKER 737 Power Bank, 24,000mAh 3-Port Laptop Portable Charger with 140W Fast Charging, Smart Display, for Outdoor Work, Compatible with iPhone 16/15/14 Series, Vision Pro, Samsung, MacBook, and More

VOLTME Portable Charger, Slim 10000mAh 5V/3A Power Bank, USB C in&Out High-Speed Charging Battery Pack, Travel Essentials Dual Output Compatible with iPhone 16 15 14 13 12 Samsung Google iPad etc

Apple AirPods 4 Wireless Earbuds, Bluetooth Headphones, with Active Noise Cancellation, Adaptive Audio, Transparency Mode, Personalized Spatial Audio, USB-C Charging Case, Wireless Charging, H2 Chip

Apple AirPods 4 Wireless Earbuds, Bluetooth Headphones, Personalized Spatial Audio, Sweat and Water Resistant, USB-C Charging Case, H2 Chip, Up to 30 Hours of Battery Life, Effortless Setup for iPhone

Apple AirPods Pro 2 Wireless Earbuds, Active Noise Cancellation, Hearing Aid Feature, Bluetooth Headphones, Transparency, Personalized Spatial Audio, High-Fidelity Sound, H2 Chip, USB-C Charging

Bose QuietComfort Bluetooth Headphones, Wireless Headphones with Active Over Ear Noise Cancelling and Mic, Deep Bass, Up to 24 Hours of Playtime, White Smoke

Barnyard Designs Indoor Herb Garden Planter Set with Tray, Metal Windowsill Plant Pots with Drainage for Outdoor or Indoor Plants, Set/3 (Black)

Eye Contact Web Camera for Desktop Computer – 1080P USB Camera with Microphone & Stand, Center Cam for Laptop or Desktop, Manual Focus, Plug & Play for macOS & Windows(Black)
![PEHAEL 3+3Pack for iPhone 17 Pro Max Privacy Screen Protector with Camera Lens Protector Full Coverage Anti-Spy Tempered Glass Film 9H Hardness Easy Installation Bubble Free [6.9 inch]](https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/61PnVkv6KKL._AC_UL960_FMwebp_QL65_.jpg)
PEHAEL 3+3Pack for iPhone 17 Pro Max Privacy Screen Protector with Camera Lens Protector Full Coverage Anti-Spy Tempered Glass Film 9H Hardness Easy Installation Bubble Free [6.9 inch]
![Ailun 3 Pack Screen Protector for iPhone 16 Pro Max [6.9 inch] + 3 Pack Camera Lens Protector with Installation Frame,Sensor Protection,Dynamic Island Compatible,Case Friendly Tempered Glass Film](https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/815keamN-BL._AC_UL960_FMwebp_QL65_.jpg)
Ailun 3 Pack Screen Protector for iPhone 16 Pro Max [6.9 inch] + 3 Pack Camera Lens Protector with Installation Frame,Sensor Protection,Dynamic Island Compatible,Case Friendly Tempered Glass Film




