胡‧說樓市|數據研究–樓市疲弱,市民負擔得起嗎?|Yahoo Hong Kong

雅虎香港 Yahoo Hong Kong January 17, 2024
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以前業主市一面倒強硬,準買家常常埋怨何時可入市,但2023年的局面卻已經改寫。去年全年樓價再回落5%,買賣雙方在談判桌上的地位逐漸對等,但此時此刻卻是準買家縮沙打退堂鼓。老行尊常說「寧買當頭起」,究竟目前樓價是否已跌至底位,已具備回升的條件呢? 樓價跌,又是否代表樓價已經很相宜,已回落至小市民可負擔水平? 無可否認,市場目光都集中在一手市場,因為發展商也要各出奇謀清倉減磅、套現至上,所以一手樓大幅度減價下,二手市場也幾乎被人遺忘。回首一望,才發現不少二手屋苑的樓價已下跌一定水平。 藍籌屋苑如沙田第一城,以前最少都要500萬元以上才有交易,如今300萬元以上已有成交;硬淨如龍頭太古城,早前也曾出現600多萬元的成交。二手業主要成功出貨,不能如新盤般推出各色各樣的付款辦法幫助,只能明刀明槍劈價吸客。 這種情況導致近年蝕讓比率特別高,我們《胡 ‧ 說樓市》編輯部嘗試歸納市場資訊,發現2023年首11個月,在已知轉讓價的19,221宗二手私樓買賣登記中,竟然有高達3,282宗為蝕讓離場個案,相當於蝕讓比率17%。換言之,100宗買賣之中,有17宗要輸錢,以前大旺市根本不會出現,但現在卻是家常便飯。 部份業主急走移民,抱著「要錢唔要貨」的沽貨心態,但求套現;部份人則可能見樓價回落而壯士斷臂,亦有人可能在供款壓力下要割價離場,總之每宗成交也有其故事,但姑勿論什麼原因,對於準買家來說,他們更想知道,現時是否合適的入市時機? 為何樓價跌了不少,但成交量仍然處於低位? 究竟目前樓價是否已跌至底位,已具備回升的條件呢? 歸納市場上幾種潛在準買家,有一類人的處境比較尷尬,他們就是換樓客。就算想透過換樓提升生活,卻因為舊有物業無人接貨,根本失去套現換樓的能力。如果貿貿然「先買後賣」,也隨時因為未能沽出舊有物業,當刻手持兩層物業,導致供樓壓力沉重,所以在目前市況,換樓客的動力並不活躍,心態上都是一動不如一靜。 撇除移民客連人帶錢離開香港,一些剩餘有能力置業的人,他們又會怎樣投放手上資金呢? 是把這筆資金存放在定期,還是轉投吸納資產較吸引? 一層45平方米的中小住宅,平均售價586萬元,但同類單位租金收入僅為每月16,335元,未扣除雜費的回報僅為3.3厘,回報並不算吸引。要他們把同一筆資金,寧願賺少一點定存利息,而冒險放在磚頭,則物業必須有更強的賣點。 物業跟定存不同,物業或許具升值潛力,定存卻只屬保本之列,但今時今日樓價是否已確認見底? 就算確認見底,之後會持續橫行、抑或會馬上回升? 如果真的要觸發樓價回升,背後準買家必須重新入市推動樓價向上,但樓價對準買家而言是否相宜? 對於自用準買家來說,雖然眼前私樓樓價回落,但樓價卻未算跌至相宜水平。如果參考政府供樓負擔比率,截至2023年第三季,供樓佔入息比率為72%,也就是一個家庭用上72%的收入供樓,政府的說法是,目前比率仍高於平均數51%,如果利率上升兩個百分點,比率還會升至85%。 當然政府用了較嚴謹的假設,但如果我們以實際景象推算中小型家庭的負擔。以一層中小住宅售價586萬元計算,借取90%按揭,攤分30年還款期,以現時息率4.125厘,月供也起碼要26,141元,佔家庭入息中位數40,500元的65%,但如果要通過壓力測試,則入息起碼要有54,555元,已經超過中小型家庭的負擔。樓價跌,但對普羅大眾卻未必是容易負擔,也直接影響在買樓時,他們願意追價的心情,而這亦間接遏抑樓價向上的動力。 💡 立即追蹤YAHOO HONG KONG YouTube頻道+開啟推播通知,緊貼最新YAHOO節目影片!https://bit.ly/3a1jUCG 👉🏻 觀看更多: 胡‧說樓市|薈鳴舊契樓有咩要注意? 2024年頭炮新盤拆解! https://youtu.be/Fg2dx-7pPhc #胡說樓市 #胡國威 #樓市 #樓價 #YAHOO節目重溫 #YAHOO自家製 #YAHOOTVHK

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