Are accurate election predictions luck or skill?

Video Description

Thanks to Jop Schaap for analysing how lucky I was. See their report here: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/yrzp0z3r2u4dgistmtor1/Lucky_predictions_Jop_Schaap.pdf?rlkey=c0ctkocele9sso7kh46y73kcp&dl=0 If you'd like to see my spreadsheet, here it is. The percentages and values were all generated by some terrible python code I hand-wrote myself. https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/e6wfyb9382gr6ihnvyp7z/Lucky_predictions_Matt-spreadsheet.xlsx?rlkey=95lj0l1c59meo1yrxq0hxjgol&dl=0 Thanks to Evan Harris for chatting about election stats with me and kindly recording a video. Here's the big table of data they made: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3ahu3g5gouaseb7ch7f0s/Mid-Sussex-Local-Election-Results.docx?rlkey=g22ko1y5h8sb414vrfgfpvf6t&dl=0 Ongoing thanks to Count Binface, Tom Wilson and Dave Rowntree who have helped hugely with this video series. Part 01: https://youtu.be/zDLxgEquxA0 Part 02: https://youtu.be/K-hdJIWsK3A Massive thanks to my Patreon supporters. I'm definitely lucky to have you all. https://www.patreon.com/standupmaths CORRECTIONS - None yet, let me know if you spot anything! Filming by Matt Parker Editing by Gus Melton Written and performed by Matt Parker Produced by Nicole Jacobus Music by Howard Carter Opening titles by Alex Genn-Bash Design by Simon Wright and Adam Robinson MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician Website: http://standupmaths.com/