EP-185 裴敏欣:为何习近平的出现是大概率事件?中国梦 | 中国模式 丨邓小平丨 改革开放 | 现代化理论 | 极权主义 | 政治体制改革 | 六四事件 | 中国民主化 |

不明白播客 December 12, 2025
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不明白播客

@bumingbai

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当下中国最有趣的谈话都是在私下进行的。《不明白播客》希望把有趣的谈话分享给世界各地的中文听众,在这个黑暗、混乱的时代发出一点光亮和温度。 不明白播客为非盈利项目,但是欢迎个人用户捐赠。

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长期以来,西方普遍相信中国的经济发展终将带来政治上的民主化。然而在改革开放四十年之后的现实却截然相反:习近平上台后,中国不仅没有继续走向开放,反而快速回到重压的极权体制。 在新书《破碎的中国梦》中,裴敏欣教授提出了一个重要观点:今天的极权回潮并非偶然,而是四十年改革开放内部逻辑的必然结果。本期节目,我们将与裴教授一起回顾:为什么中国政治体制转型会失败?为何习近平式的领导人在这一体制下几乎不可避免?为什么经济增长在中国没有推动民主,反而削弱了改革动力?庞大的极权机器又是如何一步步重启的?那个曾被寄予厚望的“中国梦”,又是怎样一步步走向破碎? 欢迎点击向不明白播客捐赠:https://www.bumingbai.net/donation/ 文字版: https://bit.ly/bmb-185-text 时间轴: 00:00 intro 00:53 研究中国的心路:从审慎乐观到“破碎的中国梦” 04:03 80年代三条政治改革线索:党内制度化、社会宽松与顶层设计 08:24 政改蓝图为何夭折? 09:48 党内“制度化”为何只是纸牌屋? 13:09 中国极权为何民主转型难? 19:59 经济发展如何反而阻碍民主?中共如何用增长反哺统治? 26:03 习近平的崛起:偶然人选还是体制下的大概率事件? 31:00 邓小平没拆掉“极权机器”,习只是重新通电 35:32 从“韬光养晦”到战狼与魅力外交:邓小平与习近平外交的差别 41:39 两种不同的“中国梦” 44:52 给美国与中国精英的提醒:别被“中国模式”迷惑 48:01嘉宾推荐 嘉宾推荐: 贾瑞雪 李宏彬 《The Highest Exam》(《最高考试》) https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674295391 Jerome Alan Cohen(孔杰荣)《 Eastward Westward》(《东行,西行》) https://cup.columbia.edu/book/eastward-westward/9780231215923/ Netflix 剧集《Turning Point》( 《转折点》) https://movie.douban.com/subject/36781078/ 相关链接: 裴敏欣《The Broken China Dream: How Reform Revived Totalitarianism》 https://bit.ly/BrokenChinaDream EP-141 裴敏欣:习近平反腐为何越反越腐? https://youtu.be/OOaXR-biVdE

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