Is AI Slowing Down? Nathan Labenz Says We're Asking the Wrong Question

Video Description

Nathan Labenz is one of the clearest voices analyzing where AI is headed, pairing sharp technical analysis with his years of work on The Cognitive Revolution. In this episode, Nathan joins a16z’s Erik Torenberg to ask a pressing question: is AI progress slowing down, or are we just getting used to the breakthroughs? They cover the debate over GPT-5, the state of reasoning and automation, the future of agents and engineering work, and how we can build a positive vision for where AI goes next. Timecodes: 00:00 Intro 01:14 Cal Newport’s “AI slowdown” argument 03:08 Are students getting lazy? 04:55 Nathan's two-by-two matrix of AI impact 07:00 Scaling laws, GPT-4.5, and what changed with GPT-5 11:05 Longer context windows and better reasoning 17:05 AI as scientist and real discoveries 19:17 GPT-5’s shift and why launch perception matters 26:10 Jobs, automation, and the misunderstood METR study 36:20 The future of coding, agents, and recursive self-improvement 51:15 Beyond chatbots: multimodal AI and robotics 1:27:00 Why the future depends on a positive vision for AI Resources: Follow Nathan on X: https://x.com/labenz Listen to the Cognitive Revolution: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk Watch Cognitive Revolution: https://www.youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast Stay Updated: If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to like, subscribe, and share with your friends! Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.