IS CHESS A GAME OF CHANCE? Classical vs Frequentist vs Bayesian Probability
Dr. Trefor Bazett
@drtreforAbout
This channel is about helping you learn math. I've got full playlists for Discrete Math, Linear Algebra, Calculus I-IV and Differential equations, as well as many more videos on cool math topics or about learning effectively. I am an Associate Teaching Professor teaching mathematics at the University of Victoria, in Canada. I completed my PhD in a fun branch of math called Algebraic Topology at the University of Toronto. Many of the videos on this channel were filmed during my time as an Assistant Professor, Educator at the University of Cincinnati. Mathematics is a journey we can all participate in. My videos can help support you, give you tools, and show you some of beauty and power of mathematics. But ultimately it is a journey we must travel together, so make sure you don't JUST watch my videos. Ask questions, try problems, and do as much math as you can on your own too!
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Learn more about probability - and so much more - at http://www.brilliant.org/treforbazett. My thanks to Brilliant for sponsoring today's video. Check out my MATH MERCH line in collaboration with Beautiful Equations ►https://www.beautifulequation.com/pages/trefor What, exactly, is probability? In this video we will see a few different perspectives on chance, the classical or a priori viewpoint, the frequentist or empirical viewpoint, and finally the Bayesian or subjective viewpoint. We're even going to consider the game of chess, what appears to be overwhelmingly a game of skill, but which the limits of our bounded rationality still results in probabilistic elements. 0:00 Intro to Probability 0:50 Classical Probability 2:09 Frequentist Probability 5:18 Bayesian Probability 7:14 Is Chess a game of chance? 11:05 Underestimate the role of chance 11:47 Brilliant.org/treforbazett Classical Probability: This is when we have a finite set of equally likely possibilities, and thus the probability of an event A is just the number of times A occurs out of all the possibilities. This is great when we know everything about a situation like a normal deck of cards. Frequentist Probability: This is when we do emperical studies and see how frequently event A occurs, particularly in the limit as we do a large number of studies. This is great when we don't know a priori exactly what is going on like some deck with an unknown number of cards removed, but the downside is we need to be able to do a large number of trials. Bayesian Probability: This is when we begin with a prior probability and when we gain new information we update our worldview (often using Bayes' Theorem) to get a posterior probability. This viewpoint is subjective because you and I may get different results given different information and different even if we had the same prior probability. COURSE PLAYLISTS: ►DISCRETE MATH: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLHXZ9OQGMqxersk8fUxiUMSIx0DBqsKZS ►LINEAR ALGEBRA: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLHXZ9OQGMqxfUl0tcqPNTJsb7R6BqSLo6 ►CALCULUS I: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLHXZ9OQGMqxfT9RMcReZ4WcoVILP4k6-m ► CALCULUS II: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLHXZ9OQGMqxc4ySKTIW19TLrT91Ik9M4n ►MULTIVARIABLE CALCULUS (Calc III): https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLHXZ9OQGMqxc_CvEy7xBKRQr6I214QJcd ►VECTOR CALCULUS (Calc IV) https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLHXZ9OQGMqxfW0GMqeUE1bLKaYor6kbHa ►DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLHXZ9OQGMqxde-SlgmWlCmNHroIWtujBw ►LAPLACE TRANSFORM: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLHXZ9OQGMqxcJXnLr08cyNaup4RDsbAl1 ►GAME THEORY: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLHXZ9OQGMqxdzD8KpTHz6_gsw9pPxRFlX OTHER PLAYLISTS: ► Learning Math Series https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPH2lqis3D0&list=PLHXZ9OQGMqxfSkRtlL5KPq6JqMNTh_MBw ►Cool Math Series: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLHXZ9OQGMqxelE_9RzwJ-cqfUtaFBpiho BECOME A MEMBER: ►Join: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC9rTsvTxJnx1DNrDA3Rqa6A/join MATH BOOKS & MERCH I LOVE: ► My Amazon Affiliate Shop: https://www.amazon.com/shop/treforbazett SOCIALS: ►Twitter (math based): http://twitter.com/treforbazett ►Instagram (photography based): http://instagram.com/treforphotography
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