Is the U.S.-Israel relationship heading for trouble? w/Ambassador Michael Oren | Think Twice

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Can Israel afford to say “no” to the president who has been its best friend since the founding of the modern Jewish state? According to JNS editor-in-chief Jonathan Tobin, that’s a question that may have to be answered by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if President Donald Trump’s optimism about his negotiations with the Iranian regime is vindicated by events. Joining him on this week’s episode of Think Twice is historian and former Israeli ambassador to the United States Michael Oren. He believes that the alliance between the two nations is not “in trouble yet,” but, “may be heading to trouble.” Oren states that the two things that the two pillars of the relationship are, “no daylight” and “no surprises.” While it’s not clear yet if the appearance of daylight on Iran policy and the negotiations with Hamas will turn into reality. But he says there have been a lot of surprises for Jerusalem from the Trump administration. A nuclear deal with Iran of any kind that is likely would be bad for the United States but disastrous for Israel. But while its government has the sovereign right to reject any American policy, doing so now, while it is so isolated and essentially with “no friends” abroad creates a perilous dilemma for Netanyahu. The former ambassador believes these developments, as well as events during the Biden administration, make it all the more essential for Israel to become less dependent on the United States. Oren is a longtime opponent of continued U.S. aid to Israel, which he asserts, sends, “the wrong message to our neighbors.” Oren grew up and taught in the United States. He said that the post-Oct. 7, 2023 surge of antisemitism is both shocking and a sign that the old paradigm of combatting this scourge by the Jewish establishment is finished. The Jews have been returned to their situation in the past in which antisemitism was both open and mainstream. The battle on college campuses is, he said, “fundamentally about America” and not antisemitism. The universities are, he said, “creating a culture that is inimical to the American idea.” In response, Oren believes, Jews must “fight them in the Churchillian sense. You can fight them in the classroom. can fight them in the courtroom. You can fight them in the media. You can fight them.” Chapters 00:00 The State of US-Israel Relations 02:55 Iran's Influence and Nuclear Negotiations 06:24 Trump's Approach to Iran and Israel's Dilemma 11:39 Israel's Military Options and Dependence on the US 15:01 Israel's Isolation and the Need for Independence 17:08 The Dilemma of Hostages vs. Hamas 21:09 The Moral and Strategic Implications of Hostage Situations 22:59 Leadership and Communication in Israel 27:30 The Future of Netanyahu and Israeli Politics 30:50 The Golan Heights and Regional Dynamics 32:28 Antisemitism in America: A Historical Perspective 36:07 The Role of Academia in Shaping Attitudes 43:40 Future Projects and Advocacy for Israel Listen/Subscribe to weekly episodes on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube Music, iHeart Radio or wherever you listen to your podcasts. Watch new episodes every week by subscribing to the JNS YouTube Channel. This episode of Think Twice is sponsored by The Jewish Future Promise — ensuring a vibrant and thriving future for Jews and Israel. Sign the pledge: https://jewishfuturepromise.org/sign-the-promise/