Lies, damned lies, and economics | Gary Stevenson, Abby Innes, and Nadhim Zahawi

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Gary Stevenson, Abby Innes, and Nadhim Zahawi discuss the economic failures that have financially crippled all but the richest in society Why do economists consistently fail to make good predictions? With a free trial, you can watch the full debate NOW at https://iai.tv/video/lies-damned-lies-and-economics?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=description Governments, bankers and economists spend a great deal of time predicting the economy. Their forecasts have a profound effect on policy. The forecasts though are often wrong, and critics argue we just don't have a credible theory of how the economy works. In 2023, 70% of economists polled predicted a US recession which never happened. In 2021, 16 of the 36 living American Nobel economists declared “there was no threat of inflation”. In Britain, the government body tasked with forecasting, the OBR, has admitted 'genuine errors' in its forecasts of inflation. Not surprisingly one of the world's leading economic research institutes concludes 'pretty much everything we could have got wrong, we got wrong'. Should we conclude that 70 years after Keynes, and 40 years after monetarism, we lack a robust overall economic theory and urgently need one? Can we eradicate the impact of political beliefs and assumptions in economic forecasting? Or are forecasts from economic models always going to fail to make precise predictions and we just have to recognise that reality? #economics #costofliving #capitalism Nadhim Zahawi is a politician who served in various ministerial positions under Prime Ministers Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak. Gary Stevenson is a former financial trader who became an activist against inequality and a prominent YouTuber. Abby Innes is an Associate Professor in Political Economy at LSE focusing on how the UK’s economy mirrors the Soviet Union. Hosted by Hilary Lawson. The Institute of Art and Ideas features videos and articles from cutting edge thinkers discussing the ideas that are shaping the world, from metaphysics to string theory, technology to democracy, aesthetics to genetics. Subscribe today! https://iai.tv/subscribe?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=https://iai.tv/video/lies-damned-lies-and-economics 00:00 Introduction 00:23 The unpredictability of human societies 02:02 Nadhim Zahawi on economic forecasts, the war in Ukraine, and the impact of the pandemic 05:00 Abby Innes on the fundamental mistakes of modern economic models 09:35 Gary Stevenson on government corruption, inequality, and the cost of living crisis For debates and talks: https://iai.tv For articles: https://iai.tv/articles For courses: https://iai.tv/iai-academy/courses