Luke Gromen: "All Roads Lead To Gold"

Video Description

REGISTER FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S SPRING ONLINE CONFERENCE AT THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT PRICE at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conference Today's guest has long warned that the US and most other countries are hurdling into a global sovereign debt crisis. One that is increasingly forcing them to "Get busy inflating, or get busy dying" To get an update where things stand on his timeline, where this all is likely headed, and what investors should be tracking most, we're fortunate to welcome Luke Gromen, founder of macro research firm FFTT, LLC, back to the program. Looking at the all important trends underway, Luke reaches the same conclusion for each of them: "All roads lead to gold" To find out why, watch this video. #gold #debt #inflationhedge 0:00 - Current assessment of global sovereign debt crisis 2:10 - Acceleration phase and Japan's bond market issues 3:01 - Key macro chart: Treasury vs JGB yields and yen divergence 4:42 - China's export controls pressuring Japan 5:08 - Global scramble for physical commodities 5:33 - AI's rapid impact on tax receipts and bonds 6:31 - Bitcoin signaling liquidity tightness 6:56 - Japan's rock-and-hard-place dilemma on rates and inflation 8:15 - Prioritizing bond market over currency via printing 8:59 - Japan's NIIP as emergency piggy bank 10:05 - Potential crisis handover to US via asset sales 11:25 - Spillover effects on US markets and borrowing costs 12:07 - Japanese yields mirroring gold price trends 13:18 - Inflation as tool for sovereign debt management 13:56 - Gold buying awakening in China, Japan, and US 15:35 - All roads lead to gold as no-counterparty asset 16:25 - Unprecedented bullion flows and sovereign deliveries 17:32 - US non-monetary gold as top export 19:17 - Gold flows from West to East via Switzerland 20:12 - De facto settling trade deficits in gold 21:28 - Government pivot to desiring higher gold prices 22:23 - Why gold suppression ended for reshoring goals 23:37 - Gold as win-win in US-China framework deal 24:54 - Recent gold/silver corrections vs past spikes 25:44 - This time different: national security needs higher gold 26:59 - Mercantilism return and end of globalism 28:40 - US lacking real goods exports, needing dollar drop 29:55 - Historical US gold vs foreign debt ratios 31:39 - Potential gold prices in crisis scenarios 33:09 - Trade deficits and keeping US gold stores 34:00 - Focus on critical minerals over gold in expansions 35:43 - China's gold imports amid mercantilism accusations 37:21 - Dollar overvalued vs gold; $38k balancing point 39:41 - Timeframe: gold to $15-25k over 5-10 years 40:58 - Gold outperforming S&P historically 42:19 - Bitcoin's role as people's reserve but levered tech 42:50 - Stable coins as Hail Mary for Treasury market 44:18 - Cultural preference for gold over T-bill stables 45:34 - US NIIP preventing imperial dollar cycle repeat 47:24 - Forcing stables via swaps could backfire 48:38 - 2026 outlook: bumpy but good year with interventions 49:46 - Bitcoin as liquidity smoke alarm 50:55 - Certainty of Treasury sell-offs in crises 52:23 - Hedge funds' basis trades amplifying volatility 53:54 - Rapid central planner reactions 55:16 - New regime: nominal stock gains lag gold 55:59 - Why 10-20% gold allocation, not higher 57:12 - Binary thinking vs gradations in investing 58:03 - Context: end of debt cycle and great power shifts 58:50 - Fuger portfolio to mitigate tail risks 1:01:03 - Charlie Munger's risk avoidance parallel 1:02:22 - Where to follow Luke's work _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter. We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such. We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance. IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance. Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC. Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.