Morgan Stanley's Wilson: We're In New Economic, Earnings Cycle

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Mike Wilson, Chief US Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss his 2026 market outlook, saying that market broadening is happening now as the US economy and market begins a new cycle. "There have been many parts of the economy that have been sort of mired in a recession for the last three years or so, and they're just now starting to emerge," Wilson says. "That broadening out is the real story." Wilson also reiterates his 7,800 S&P 500 year-end target. Wilson speaks with Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec, and Bloomberg News Equities Reporter Alexandra Semenova. The US trade deficit widened in December, capping a turbulent year of erratic tariff policy. The goods and services trade gap expanded from the prior month to $70.3 billion, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. The shortfall culminated in a full-year deficit of $901.5 billion, still one of the largest in data back to 1960. The December deficit reflected a 3.6% increase in the value of imports. Exports of goods and services declined 1.7%. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a $55.5 billion overall shortfall. The trade data were notably volatile in 2025 on a month-to-month basis as US importers reacted to a persistent drumbeat of tariff announcements from President Donald Trump. Gold and pharmaceutical imports were particularly choppy as companies raced to beat higher duties. The increase in goods imports in December included gains in computer accessories and motor vehicles. The decline in exports largely reflected fewer outbound shipments of gold, according to the trade report. The latest trade data will help economists firm up their estimates for fourth-quarter gross domestic product, which will be released on Friday. Before the figures, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast net exports would add about 0.6 percentage point to fourth-quarter growth, now estimated at 3.6%. After adjusting for changes in prices, which filters into the real GDP measurement, the merchandise trade deficit widened to $97.1 billion in December, the most since July. Trade in gold, unless used for industrial purposes such as in the production of jewelry, is excluded from the government’s GDP calculation. Trump has leaned on tariffs as part of his strategy to reduce reliance on foreign goods, encourage domestic investment and correct decades of declines in manufacturing employment. He and his economic team have criticized research concluding that Americans have borne the costs of tariffs. Read More: Hassett Attacks NY Fed for Study on Tariff Burden Hitting US Last year, US companies imported nearly $145 billion worth of computers and accessories more than they did in 2024. The acceleration in demand reflected the massive investment underway in artificial intelligence. By country, the deficit with Taiwan last year widened to a record $146.8 billion. The shortfall with China, meanwhile, narrowed sharply — reaching about $202 billion, the smallest in more than 20 years and a reflection of the higher tariffs Trump put on Chinese imports. The deficit with Mexico widened to a record, while the annual shortfall with Canada narrowed. Separate data Thursday showed US initial -------- Watch Bloomberg Radio LIVE on YouTube Weekdays 7am-6pm ET WATCH HERE: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF Follow us on X: https://twitter.com/BloombergRadio Subscribe to our Podcasts: Bloomberg Daybreak: http://bit.ly/3DWYoAN Bloomberg Surveillance: http://bit.ly/3OPtReI Bloomberg Intelligence: http://bit.ly/3YrBfOi Balance of Power: http://bit.ly/3OO8eLC Bloomberg Businessweek: http://bit.ly/3IPl60i Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app: Apple CarPlay: https://apple.co/486mghI Android Auto: https://bit.ly/49benZy Visit our YouTube channels: Bloomberg Podcasts: https://www.youtube.com/bloombergpodcasts Bloomberg Television: https://www.youtube.com/@markets Bloomberg Originals: https://www.youtube.com/bloomberg Quicktake: https://www.youtube.com/@BloombergQuicktake