Russia's Autumn Offensive - Pokrovsk, the Coming Winter and a Changing Battlefield

Video Description

Sponsored by Ground News: Compare news coverage. Spot media bias. Avoid algorithms. Try Ground News today and get 40% off your subscription by going to https://ground.news/perun Russia began 2025 expressing confidence in its battlefield prospects. Putin talked about creating new buffer zones and finishing off the Ukrainian military. Most of a year later, Russia's gains have again been mostly incremental while Ukraine's ability to strike against valuable Russian targets in the rear has steadily grown. But despite Russia falling short of their likely goals, Ukraine is clearly under immense pressure. The infantry force is under-strength, the force is stretched, and Russian infiltration tactics, have delivered territorial gains, albeit at a steep price. This episode then, we look at the Russian Autumn offensive, some of its major fronts (especially Pokrovsk), how the fighting has evolved and what it might tell us about the status of the two forces going into another winter that is expected to be colder and harder than the previous one. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/c/PerunAU Reading and Sourcing: Unless otherwise stated, battlefield control maps as per Deepstatemap for consistency with other videos Pskov restating need to achieve Russian objectives https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/russia-says-wants-quick-end-to-ukraine-conflict-but-only-after-achieving-goals/3739719 Russia creates drone warfare force https://www.twz.com/news-features/russia-creates-new-military-branch-dedicated-to-drone-warfare Example reporting of Ukrainian UAS operation against Crimean targets https://militarnyi.com/en/news/destruction-of-radars-in-crimea-how-special-operations-forces-and-lasar-s-group-conducted-a-unique-operation/ USF Performance dashboard https://sbs-group.army/subdivision/usf_grouping/?period=daily Reporting on the "28 point plan" https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points- russia https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/21/europe/peace-proposal-russia-ukraine-annotated-intl-vis https://www.foxnews.com/world/u-s-russia-draft-peace-plan-ukraine-requiring-major-concessions-from-kyiv https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cde6yld78d6o https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/21/trumps-28-point-ukraine-plan-in-full-what-it-means-could-it-work Reported 120,000 glide bomb production target figure https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-plans-make-up-120000-glide-bombs-this-year-ukrainian-intelligence-says-2025-11-14/ Reporting on Putin's statements on creating a buffer zone and 'finishing off' Ukrainian forces (early 2025) https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/22/europe/russia-buffer-zone-ukraine-border-intl https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crlxl37wnnyo Meduza mapping - Pokrovsk control https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/11/19/as-the-battle-for-pokrovsk-continues-meduza-s-military-analysts-weigh-the-costs-for-ukraine-on-other-fronts Russian gelocation map in Pokrovsk per clement molin https://x.com/clement_molin/status/1989745581837996116/photo/1 Example of a claimed UAS strike on Russian infantry north of Pokrovsk https://x.com/dillonrpayton/status/1990130121290944843 Zelensky 40% Ukraine made weapons claim https://militarnyi.com/en/news/zelensky-40-of-weapons-at-front-are-ukrainian-made-by-the-end-of-2025-50/ Example report on claimed Russian exaggeration of territory taken https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/09/17/russia-inflates-battlefield-gains-after-a-costly-summer-offensive-a90548 Source for draft Ukraine-Russia agreement texts and statements (2022) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-deal.html Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete examination of the topic and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other any other views and/or decisions. Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character. Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on. Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:20 — What Am I Talking About? 00:03:10 — Background 00:08:02 — Politics, Pressure & Campaign 00:12:34 — the Front 00:18:31 — Pokrovsk 00:26:12 — Analysis 00:38:19 — What Does It Tell Us About the Forces? 00:59:26 — Crimea 01:04:39 — Observations and What Next 01:08:00 — Channel Update