Stocks Likely To Trend Higher Into Year End? | Michael Lebowitz

Video Description

BUY THE REPLAY of the full Thoughtful Money conference here at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference Have markets now made it safely through the seasonal risk of October? Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz thinks they likely have, barring some surprise curveball. Which is why, should conditions remain steady, Michael sees stocks trending higher into year end. He and I discuss why, as well as inflation, housing, recession risk, bond yields, gold and the recent sports betting scandal, as well as his firm's latest trades in this week's Market Recap #inflation #goldprice #recession 0:00 - S&P Technicals: MACD/RSI Divergence, Support at 20/50-Day MAs 3:00 - Volume Signal: On-Balance Volume Flat—Rising Selling Pressure 4:50 - Earnings Boost: Big Tech Next, Buyback Blackouts End 6:18 - Santa Rally Setup: Holiday Rebalancing Aids Gains 7:45 - Pullback Odds: October/November Dip? Newton/Lance Echoes 9:08 - Economy Path: K-Shaped, Employment Drives 70% Consumption 9:31 - Growth Trend: 2% Natural Rate, No Recession—Fed's 1.8% Long-Term 10:46 - CPI Read: Sticky 3% YoY "Cool," But Shelter Lag Persists 12:02 - Shelter Drag: New Leases Plunge—CPI Normalization 1-1.5 Years 13:00 - Housing Stasis: Pent-Up Supply/Demand Balance, Prices Flat 15:00 - New Home Discounts: Cheaper Than Existing—Demand Softens 16:58 - MBA Rates: 6.3-6.4% Through 2027—Recession/Boom Alters 18:33 - Price Correction: Affordability Needs Drops, Not Just Rates 25:40 - Trade War Noise: Trump Tweets Kabuki—Market Desensitized 27:54 - Oil Bottom?: Sanctions Tighten, But Economy/OPEC Dictate 30:05 - Jobs Clues: ADP 25-50K Adds—Below Trend for 2% Growth 32:39 - Meme Froth: Beyond Meat Scams—SEC Lapse Fuels Gambling 38:05 - Spec Over Fundamentals: Negative Earnings Beat Positives 30% 43:04 - Energy "Steak": Fossil Fuels Cheap—Rotation Awaits Weakness 52:15 - Bond Grind: Yields Lower on Eased Volatility/Term Premium 1:02:29 - Debasement Hype: Media Spike, But Data Shows No Shift 1:05:20 - Printing Myth: Banks Create Money—Fed Restrictive on QT 1:07:15 - M2 Steady: No Excess—Pandemic Blip Erased 1:08:39 - Real Income Up: Purchasing Power Rises Despite Inequality 1:13:25 - Gold vs. Assets: Oil/RE Flat—Narrative Ignores Stagnation 1:15:30 - GLD Spec: Call Surge—Futures Leverage Drives Froth 1:17:44 - Gold Pullback: $3,300 Bullish—Trend to $2,500 Possible 1:27:32 - Trades Update: +Meta/JPM/Amazon, Trim ServiceNow 1:36:15 - Rant: More PE Fund than McDonald's—Hollows Firms, Ruins Sectors _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter. We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such. We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance. IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance. Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC. Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.