The Biggest Threats to Life as We Know It with Luke Kemp | TGS 153

Video Description

(Conversation recorded on October 22nd, 2024) The human system as we know it today – which powers our economies, global supply chains, and social contracts – is a fragile network based on innumerable complex components. Yet we rarely stop to recognize its many vulnerabilities, instead taking for granted that it will continue to securely operate indefinitely. But if we take a more careful look, how can we assess the risks of major catastrophic events that could destroy life as we know it? Today, Nate is joined by Luke Kemp, a researcher whose work is focused on existential risks (or X-risks), which encompass threats of human extinction, societal collapse, and dystopian futures. How can we begin to understand the likelihood and gravity of these ruinous events, and what kinds of responses from people and governments could further undermine social cohesion and resilience? What roles do human biases, hierarchical power structures, and the development of technologies, like artificial intelligence and geoengineering, play in X-risks? How can we collaborate across industries to protect our modern systems through effective risk management strategies? And in what ways do our institutions need to become more inclusive to better democratize decision-making processes, leading to safer futures for humanity? About Luke Kemp: Luke is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) and Darwin College at the University of Cambridge. His research focuses on understanding the history and future of extreme global risk. Luke has advised the WHO and multiple international institutions, and his work has been covered by media outlets such as the BBC, New York Times, and the New Yorker. He holds both a Doctorate in International Relations and a Bachelor of Interdisciplinary Studies with first class honours from the Australian National University (ANU). His first book on the deep history and future of societal collapse (titled Goliath’s Curse) will be published with Penguin in June 2025. Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/153-luke-kemp --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/support Join our Substack newsletter: https://natehagens.substack.com/ Join our Discord channel and connect with other listeners: https://discord.gg/ZFfQqtqMJf --- 00:00 - Introduction 02:05 - Luke’s Background 03:29 - Existential Risks 11:13 - Techno-optimism 14:00 - State of the Field of Study 18:44 - Human Biases and Root Causes 26:40 - Morality vs The System 29:58 - Natural Selection 32:24 - Storable Surplus 36:00 - X-Risk Interactions 41:35 - X-Risk Anxiety 43:23 - Financial Overshoot 45:22 - Is Information Enough/Too Much? 52:09 - Risk Exposure and Distribution 57:19 - Mainstream Climate Research 01:03:26 - Doomerism vs Risk Realism 01:05:54 - Insurance and Information Hazards 01:13:32 - Surveillance and Forecasting 01:19:05 - What Do We Do? 01:27:45 - Future Research 01:30:10 - Closing Questions