What Uncertainty in Myanmar Means for Southeast Asia’s Investment Outlook | Asia Forward | Episode 2

Video Description

In Episode 2 of Asia Forward, host Ei Thant Sin speaks with Ambassador Susan Stevenson, former Charge d’Affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Yangon from 2023-2026, about the realities of doing business in Myanmar amid political instability, sanctions, and ongoing conflict. Since the 2021 coup, Myanmar’s economy has been shaped by currency controls, import restrictions, U.S. sanctions on military-linked entities and financial blacklisting. Yet despite the conflict and reputational risks, parts of the private sector continue operating, and businesses on the ground show notable resilience. This episode explores the real business climate in Myanmar in 2026 and what U.S. companies need to consider before entering, staying in or exiting the market. The conversation dives deep into political risk, sanctions compliance, supply chain shifts in Southeast Asia, rare earth minerals and critical resources, the rise of the shadow economy, labor shortages, digital payments, and Myanmar’s role within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). As Southeast Asia positions itself as a supply-chain alternative beyond China, where does Myanmar fit, if at all? This conversation offers essential context for investors, policymakers, and business leaders navigating emerging market risk. What We Discussed: 00:00 Introduction: How Myanmar’s political instability shapes its investment outlook in Southeast Asia. 1:50 What the situation on the ground in Myanmar looks like beyond the headlines. 4:59 What Myanmar’s elections could mean for political stability and economic liberalization. 8:29 Whether Myanmar can be considered a failed state in 2026, and what the economy on the ground reveals. 10:43 How Myanmar’s shadow economy, scam centers and transnational crime are reshaping the country’s economic landscape. 14:05 How brain drain, labor shortages and migration are reshaping Myanmar’s workforce. 15:29 Do U.S. sanctions on Myanmar’s military work, and how are they affecting the broader economy? 17:44 How U.S. businesses can avoid military-linked entities while operating in Myanmar. 21:06 How Myanmar’s rare earth minerals and critical resources factor into U.S. supply chain strategy. 23:16 Is it possible to surpass working with sanctioned entities when trying to get critical minerals out of Myanmar. 23:57 How U.S. companies can compete with and complement China’s dominant presence in Myanmar. 26:10 What Ambassador Stevenson sees as her most meaningful contribution during Myanmar’s post-coup transition. 28:10 What Myanmar’s role could be in Southeast Asia’s economy over the next five years. 30:03 What prolonged instability means for Myanmar’s economy and its place in ASEAN’s development agenda. 32:24 Whether Myanmar could benefit from supply chain diversification beyond China, and in which sectors the U.S. may have an early advantage. 34:40 Whether Myanmar can adapt to digital payments, fintech and a modern banking system. 37:13 How capital controls and financial restrictions affect companies trying to move money in and out of Myanmar. 39:03 What other risks beyond sanctions could deter U.S. companies from entering Myanmar, and what factors they must consider. Why Asia Forward? Our podcast series brings you straight-talk conversations with leaders, experts and change makers about Southeast Asia’s growth and what it means for U.S. audiences. Check out our website at www.asiaforward.org. Find us and connect with us on our socials: IG: https://www.instagram.com/asiaforward LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asiaforward/ Let us know what topic you'd like us to discuss and drop a message or two on [email protected].