Why Tariffs Lead To DEFLATION: Wall St Veteran's RECESSION Warning | Jared Dillian

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Sign up for my free weekly newsletter here: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM563Y/YTB The tariff situation is evolving fast. On Tuesday, imports from Canada and Mexico faced 25% tariffs. On Wednesday, President Trump granted US automakers a 30-day tariff exemption. On Thursday, he paused most of the new tariffs until April 2. Where will things stand when this interview goes lives on Friday, March 7? Americans buy a lot of stuff from Canada and Mexico—a combined $918.6 billion in 2024. This includes oil, electronics, cables, machinery of all types, medical instruments, furniture, commodities… A hefty 22.8% of vehicles sold in the US come from Mexico. The assumption is tariffs will lead to higher prices. Will they? I don’t think anyone knows, but it is worth considering a less reported potential outcome: Deflation. As today’s guest @TheJaredDillianShow says: "The conventional wisdom is that tariffs are super inflationary. We're going to be paying 25% more for all these goods. It causes inflation. Actually, what tariffs do is they slow down the economy and it's a deflationary force." Add in the potential for a recession and higher unemployment, which Jared says could rise to 6%–8%, and you have even more deflationary forces at work. Read Jared Dillian’s free weekly market letter here: https://www.jareddillianmoney.com/go/JD053AF024/MEC Sign up for Ed D’Agostino’s free newsletter here: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM563Y/YTB Follow Ed D’Agostino on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-d-agostino-415475296/ Timestamps: 00:00 – Introduction 01:10 – Time to worry about a recession? 04:10 – Why interest rates are going down 07:15 – Bear market ahead? 11:50 – Why tariffs are deflationary 15:20 – The tariff offset 16:03 – The dollar is following the 2017 pattern 18:35 – Bullish on bonds 20:06 – Is oil bottoming? 21:22 – The Awesome Portfolio