中澳鐵礦戰爭:西芒杜第一船貨到港!北京十年佈局終於收網,澳洲史詩級誤判,這次北京來真的!?【修正版】

陶子見聞録 January 26, 2026
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陶子見聞録

@陶子見聞録

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大家好,歡迎來到我的頻道。 我這人比較粗淺,觀點可能比較主觀或片面,如果說得不夠周全,還請大家多多包涵,不要跟我太計較。 這裡的觀眾有很多來自台灣、香港、馬來西亞、新加坡,或是旅居海外的朋友。因為大家生長的環境不同,有些詞彙、習慣用語可能不太一樣,如果讓大家產生誤解,還請見諒。 頻道裡的內容,我都會盡力查證、做足功課再跟大家分享,但畢竟我不是專家,不敢保證 100% 正確,如果講錯了,非常歡迎大家在留言區溫柔地指正我。 最後,在這個變動的時代,真心希望身處各地的華人朋友們,都能平安、和美、幸福。至於那些複雜的時事評論,大家就把我的聲音當成「睡前故事」聽聽就好,放鬆心情最重要。

Video Description

2025年10月,中國突然對澳洲必和必拓下了逐客令,全球大宗商品市場瞬間炸鍋。很多人以為這只是北京一時衝動的自殺式攻擊,畢竟中國依賴澳洲鐵礦石幾十年了。但這其實是一場早已佈置十年的精密獵殺… 🔴 非常抱歉!這部影片的資料搜集與製作有時間落差,现在更正與補充(感謝大家指正) . 必和必拓股價漲了:上集說必和必拓股價大跌是2022年~2025年4月。5月后,雖然鐵礦石業務涼了,但因為電動車和AI爆發(擴建數據中心),他們的銅礦業務大賺,硬是把股價拉到了歷史高點。 . 西芒杜已經到了:之前影片說貨還在海上漂,其實速度比預想更快!首艘貨輪「韋立青年號」已確認於 2026年1月17日 抵達中國浙江馬跡山港。這意味著「B計畫」已經正式落地! . 電價:不是便宜到一兩毛,有時候還不到一毛錢,蒙西電網甚至出現「負電價」!是電網求著用電。 . 西芒杜產能對比:說西芒杜產能「正好等於」必和必拓賣給中國的量。但只能替代一半以上的份額,必和必拓銷約2億噸以上,西芒杜滿產約1.2-1.5億噸。 . 申請簽證:說必和必拓高管還在「申請簽證」,實際中國早就對澳洲實施免簽政策了(30天)。 . 說10月1日中國停止購買「所有」必和必拓美元鐵礦石,實際上主要針對的是佔比最高的Jimblebar(金布巴)粉礦現貨,以及將長協訂單列入觀察期,不是全面停止。 . 數據釐清: * 澳洲全境卖出了大概9亿吨,賣給中國約7億噸(必和必拓一家約2億噸以上) * 澳洲礦產巨頭每年核心獲利500億美金以上,淨利200億美金(2024)。 * 西芒杜滿載產能約 1.2-1.5 億噸,目前產量正持續拉升中。 00:00 西澳港口的詭異轉向 00:22 中國的精準點穴 01:00 必和必拓為何不跌反漲? 02:37 十年的獵殺局 03:04 揭秘普氏指數的壟斷真相 04:48 觸目驚心的利潤剪刀差 05:48 談判破裂:爭奪定價權 09:19 第一張底牌:中礦集團統一採購 11:10 第二張底牌:資本滲透與FMG倒戈 13:37 第三張底牌:西芒杜 14:37 西芒杜被雪藏的20年 15:54 基建換資源:客場作戰 17:57 韋立青年號抵港:壟斷歸零 19:02 第四張底牌:廢鋼與綠電煉鋼的降維打擊 21:16 大宗商品詛咒 22:48 定價權起義 24:42 AUKUS陷阱:買美國潛艇的錢沒了 27:00 攻守易形:從自由航行到鋰礦爭奪 30:45 必和必拓CEO的投名狀 #鐵礦石 #中澳關係 #必和必拓 #人民幣定價權 #西芒杜 #中國經濟

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