全球化退潮后的系统性回撤：中国经济寒冬的底层机制
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December 23, 2025
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这期我想把一件事讲透：你以为今天的中国经济问题，是“房地产崩了”“民企不行了”，但更像一场系统性回撤。过去那台高速运转的机器，并不只是靠勤劳和聪明，而是靠一套特殊的世界条件——全球化的低摩擦环境、外部市场的消纳能力、以及内部“项目型动员”的增长结构。 当全球化开始退潮，世界从“效率优先”转向“安全优先”，供应链设卡、技术设限、资本去风险，旧增长模型就会被迫结算。你会看到一连串信号同时出现：内需收缩、融资需求萎缩、产能利用率承压、国企建工体系震动、央企进入更强风控与责任追究逻辑，银行负债端也开始重新定价。 这一期我会把机制拆开给你看：全球互补如何形成、为什么2008是前奏、全球化退潮为何让矛盾集中回流到国内，以及最关键的——风险是怎么“向下传导”到普通人身上的。最后我也会给出非常现实的行动出口：在高摩擦时代，普通家庭如何从“单点依赖”走向“多点支撑”。 如果你认同这种“把机制讲清楚”的内容，欢迎点赞、订阅、转发。你们的支持，决定我能不能继续把这些事讲透。 #中国经济寒冬 #中国经济危机 #全球化退潮 #全球化结束 #去全球化 #去风险 #中美脱钩 #供应链重构 #内需不足 #需求塌陷 #债务清算 #房地产危机 #地方财政 #土地财政 #基建危机 #国企危机 #央企重组 #央企风控 #国资委追责 #银行大额存单 #净息差 #产能过剩 #制造业外迁 #就业压力 #收入下降 #结构性问题 #风险向下传导 #普通人买单 #经济下行周期 #中国宏观经济 #系统性回撤 #高摩擦时代 #顺差赤字 #2008金融危机
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