巴菲特為何認錯？三百四十六條人命背後，航空業最殘酷的投資真相

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巴菲特曾說，如果有遠見的資本家在萊特兄弟試飛時站在現場，他本應把那架飛機打下來——整個航空業從誕生至今，作為整體從未為投資者創造財富。但他在二零一六年還是買入了四家美國航空公司，然後在二零二零年新冠疫情中認賠出清，公開承認判斷錯誤。與此同時，波音——美國工程文化的象徵——正在經歷一場由內而外的腐爛：一九九七年的麥道合併如何把工程師文化換成財務邏輯，MCAS系統如何在三百四十六條人命後被迫攤牌，內部郵件如何寫出「由小丑設計、猴子監管」，以及兩位吹哨人如何在同一個月相繼離世。本期節目從巴菲特的航空敗筆講到波音的企業墮落，從鐵路的自然壟斷講到護城河的真正本質，帶你看清：為什麼某些行業，無論你多聰明都會後悔買入；而當一家企業放棄了最核心的東西，再深的護城河也會悄悄崩塌。 #巴菲特 #波音737MAX #價值投資 #護城河 #航空業 引用資料： 1. Buffett, Warren. Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letters to Shareholders, 1989–2020. （伯克希爾·哈撒韋歷年致股東信） 2. Buffett, Warren. Remarks at Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, May 2020. （巴菲特二零二零年伯克希爾股東大會發言，宣布清倉航空股） 3. Buffett, Warren. Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter, 1996. （一九九六年致股東信，巴菲特首次承認USAir投資失誤） 4. Berkshire Hathaway 13F SEC Filings, 2016–2020. （美國證監會伯克希爾持倉申報文件） 5. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). Final Report: Alaska Airlines Flight 1282, Boeing 737 MAX 9 Door Plug Blowout, January 5, 2024. （美國國家運輸安全委員會最終調查報告） 6. Indonesian National Transportation Safety Committee (NTSC). Final Report: Lion Air Flight 610, October 29, 2018. （印尼國家運輸安全委員會獅子航空六一零號最終調查報告） 7. Ethiopian Civil Aviation Authority (ECAA). Final Report: Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302, March 10, 2019. （埃塞俄比亞民航局三零二號班機最終調查報告） 8. United States House of Representatives, Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure. Final Committee Report on the Design, Development, and Certification of the Boeing 737 MAX, September 2020. 9. United States Department of Justice. Deferred Prosecution Agreement with The Boeing Company, January 7, 2021. （美國司法部與波音延遲起訴協議） 10. Frost, Natasha. "The 1997 Merger That Paved the Way for the Boeing 737 MAX Crisis." Quartz, January 3, 2020. 11. Kennedy, Rory (Director). Downfall: The Case Against Boeing. Netflix Documentary, 2022. （Netflix紀錄片《墮落：波音的指控》） 12. Reuters. "'Designed by clowns': Boeing employees ridicule 737 MAX, regulators in internal messages." January 10, 2020. 13. The New York Times. "Boeing Employees Mocked F.A.A. and 'Clowns' Who Designed 737 Max." January 9, 2020. 14. CNN. "Boeing's 737 Max debacle could be the most expensive corporate blunder ever." November 17, 2020. 15. CNBC. "Buffett's Berkshire takes stakes in four major airlines." November 14, 2016. 16. Forbes. "Warren Buffett Dumps Airline Stocks." May 4, 2020. 17. Fortune. "The railroad with better profit margins than Google." June 4, 2014. （BNSF鐵路與谷歌利潤率比較） 18. Bloomberg News. "Boeing Ends Crippling Strike as Workers Accept Latest Offer." November 4, 2024. 19. Anderson Economic Group. "Boeing Strike: Weekly Economic Loss Estimates." 2024. 20. Munger, Charlie. Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger. Walsworth Publishing Company, 2005. （《窮查理寶典》） 21. BNSF Railway 2020 Annual Report (10-K). Burlington Northern Santa Fe, LLC. 22. Competition between Airbus and Boeing, Wikipedia. （空客與波音競爭歷史）