市场连创新高,但霍尔木兹又关了——市场,到底在看什么
芒格视角
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April 19, 2026
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今天,霍尔木兹又关了。 同一天,标普500创下连续第3个历史新高。 纳斯达克,正在经历1992年以来最长的连涨周期。 这两件事,同时是真的。 所以我只问一个问题:市场,到底在看什么? 答案,不只关于这场战争。它关于你应该如何理解市场,如何理解信息,如何理解判断力本身。 ✅ 为什么市场已经不再看霍尔木兹——49天里,它学到了什么 ✅ 市场比你想象的看得更远:9/11、新冠低点、这49天的共同逻辑 ✅ 核谈判明天在伊斯兰堡开始——JCPOA的"创造性模糊"能否再现 ✅ 朝鲜、利比亚、伊朗——三个历史参照,一个判断 ✅ 这49天,给了你三个层次的成长——你在哪个层次? ✅ 接下来追踪核谈判的新框架:三个层次,三个具体信号 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 本视频关键数据: 今日:霍尔木兹"恢复以前状态";标普500连续第3个历史新高 纳斯达克:1992年以来最长连涨周期 WTI:约$92(比战争高峰$117低25%以上) 明日伊斯兰堡:美伊第二轮谈判(美方未正式确认) 停火剩余:2天(至4月21日) JCPOA先例:离心机数量限制 + 3.67%浓缩上限 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔔 明天伊斯兰堡谈判开始——这将是这场战争最重要的一周。订阅并开启通知。 ═══════════════════════════════════════
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