The Future of the Submarine - Emerging Threats, Sensors & Transparent Oceans

Video Description

In some respects, advanced submarines are a kind final boss of sorts in the world of naval warfare. Stealthy and well armed, for many nations these resource intensive platforms have underpinned naval strategy and nuclear deterrence for years. Investments in submarines and their associated industrial bases have been on the rise in countries like the USA and PRC for years, and we've seen new powers either obtain or seek to obtain nuclear submarine capability. But much of the value of the submarine comes from the assumption that submerging brings stealth. And with new or predicted technological developments, some are predicting that in coming years or decades, that assumption may no longer hold true. So today, we look at submarines, some of the technologies that might threaten them, and ask what the future might bring for these underwater hunters. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Relevant Reading/sourcing: Bradbury, Bainbridge, ,Daniell, Anne-Marie Grisogono, Nabavi, Stuchbery, Vacca, Vella & Williams - Transparent Oceans? The Coming SSBN Counter-Detection Task May Be Insuperable https://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/nsc_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-05/transparent_oceans_report_anu_nsc_2020_0.pdf Bradbury, Grisogono, Williams & Vella in the Strategist on the above https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/advances-in-detection-technology-could-render-aukus-submarines-useless-by-2050/ Brixey-Williams - Prospects for game-changers in submarine-detection technology https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/prospects-for-game-changers-in-submarine-detection-technology/ The Future of the Undersea Deterrent: A Global Survey https://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/publication/16145/future-undersea-deterrent-global-survey Evan Lisman - Non-Acoustic Submarine Detection 2019 https://ontheradar.csis.org/issue-briefs/non-acoustic-submarine-detection/ CRS - Navy Columbia (SSBN-826) Class Ballistic Missile Submarine Program: Background and Issues for Congress https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R41129.pdf CSIS - The First Battle of the Next War https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?VersionId=WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ Andrew Davies - Submarines: does Moore mean less?https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/submarines-does-moore-mean-less/ The Atlantic - Where the Whale Things Are https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/03/where-the-whale-things-are/471795/ Submarines vs surface ships in wargames https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/collins-class-sub-shines-in-hawaii-war-games-20000707-k9kir https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8Kv4rqR6RQ&t=1s https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a19784775/gotland-class-sub-ronald-reagan-war-games/ ICESat-2 website https://icesat-2.gsfc.nasa.gov/space-lasers Squadron Leader Wren & Squadron Leader May - Detection of Submerged Vessels Using Remote Sensing Techniques (1997 ADFJ) https://nuke.fas.org/guide/usa/slbm/detection.pdf Reporting on Chinese detection innovations https://navalinstitute.com.au/china-says-it-has-way-to-better-detect-submarines Reporting on Indian SLBM test https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/15/india-says-submarine-launched-ballistic-missile-test-is-success Wake Detection images, reporting and solicitations (incomplete) https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2020/11/16/new-us-navy-airborne-radar-may-spot-submerged-submarines/?sh=584f4ee955d4 Featured Guardian article https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/05/will-all-submarines-even-nuclear-ones-be-obsolete-and-visible-by-2040 Navy Lookout - Killing submarines by drone https://www.navylookout.com/killing-submarines-by-drone/ USNI News - Sonar equipped drone fleets could be key to future submarine warfare https://news.usni.org/2020/03/09/sonar-equipped-drone-fleets-could-be-key-to-future-submarine-warfare Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions. Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:05 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:34 — What Am I Not Talking About 00:01:50 — History 00:11:49 — What Makes A Submarine? 00:24:08 — Emutopia & Kiwiland 00:28:12 — The Economics 00:34:42 — Vulnerabilities 00:50:03 — Countermeasures And Challenges 00:52:40 — The Submarine Fights Back 00:53:34 — If Not The Submarine 01:00:01 — What Next? 01:01:51 — Channel Update