Ukraine Strikes Russia's Oil Refineries - The effects, politics & what next?

Video Description

Sponsored by Ground News: Compare news coverage. Spot media bias. Avoid algorithms. Try Ground News today and get 40% off your subscription by going to https://ground.news/perun By popular vote, let's talk Russian oil refineries, what makes the strikes this August different to past Ukrainian efforts, and also what might still be missing from Ukraine's ability to maximise the impact on Russia's economy and willingness to negotiate. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/c/PerunAU Reading and Sourcing (WIP): US Strategic Bombing Survey Oil Division final report (1947) https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=mdp.39015011672485&seq=1 RAND - Air power as a coercive instrument (1999) https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1061.pdf Russian oil firm net incomes from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-30/russian-oil-majors-report-income-dip-on-weak-price-strong-ruble Reuters 17% figure: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-refineries-terminals-burn-ukraine-hits-putins-war-economy-2025-08-25/ idle capacity figure: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-idle-oil-refining-capacity-record-high-after-ukrainian-drone-attacks-2025-08-28/ Sample of attack reporting https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/lukoils-volgograd-refinery-halts-oil-processing-after-drone-attacks-sources-say-2025-08-18/ https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/23/europe/ukraine-russia-energy-attacks-intl https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/12/7446062/ https://militarnyi.com/en/news/drones-attack-syzran-oil-refinery-for-the-third-time-in-a-month/ https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-suggests-ukraine-play-offensive-russia-downplays-prospect/story?id=124853787 https://militarnyi.com/en/news/ukraine-s-defense-forces-hit-oil-pumping-station-of-druzhba-pipeline-in-russia-s-tambov-region/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-refineries-terminals-burn-ukraine-hits-putins-war-economy-2025-08-25/ https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-ukraine-viktor-orban-russia-oil-pipleline-drone/ Ust-Luga https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-ust-luga-port-operate-half-capacity-september-after-pipeline-damage-2025-08-28/ Zelensky's "friendship" comments https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rr-oEK6hCNs Reporting on the Druzhba attacks & fallout https://www.kyivpost.com/post/58968 https://www.intellinews.com/russian-oil-deliveries-to-hungary-off-again-after-third-attack-on-druzhba-pipleline-397653/ Sergey Vakulenko - What is the Real Cost and Benefit of Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Refining? (2024) https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/06/russia-oil-refining-attacks?lang=en Reporting Russian refining (2024) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-04/russia-recovers-from-ukraine-drone-strikes-as-oil-refining-rises?embedded-checkout=true Alabuga https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/russian-tv-shows-teenagers-worlds-biggest-drone-factory-making-arms-hit-ukraine-2025-07-21/ https://t.me/istories_media/9999 Albright & Fargasso on Alabuga https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/major-developments-at-alabuga-sez-point-to-significant-expansion-in-military-drone-production U.S. approves ERAM sale https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-state-department-approves-potential-sale-air-launched-cruise-missiles-ukraine-2025-08-28/ Post-Alaska negotiations/comments: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/russias-lavrov-outlines-terms-ukraine-peace-big-power-security-guarantee-no-nato-2025-08-24/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/08/25/putin-reluctant-meet-zelensky-says-trump/ Reuters on MOL head statements https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/head-hungarys-mol-sees-no-reason-wean-off-russian-oil-2024-08-05/ Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete examination of the topic and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other any other views and/or decisions. Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character. Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on. Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:48 — What Am I Talking About? 00:03:07 — Ukraine's Strategic Imperative 00:08:06 — Why Oil and Gas? 00:17:30 — Strikes So Far 00:31:41 — Estimating Impacts 00:39:55 — 2024 00:44:27 — the WW2 Precedent 00:50:44 — Missing Pieces 00:55:09 — Defender Lessons 00:59:17 — Conclusion 01:01:13 — Channel Update