"We're Now In The Middle Of A Market Correction" Admits Longtime Wall Street Bull | Ed Yardeni

Video Description

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, has maintained a more bullish outlook on the economy and the financial markers than most analysts over recent years. And he's largely been proven correct. But in the aftermath of the outbreak of war in Iran, his outlook has turned quite bearish -- he sees the return of the bond market vigilantes (a term he coined back in the 1980s), this time worldwide. And he now calculates rising odds of both an economic recession and bear market in stocks resulting from the current oil price shock. What advice does he have for investors in such an environment? To find out, watch this video #marketcorrection #bearmarket #recession 0:00 – Confirming Ed’s Shifted Outlook After the Iran War 3:48 – Raising Recession Odds to 35% While Keeping Roaring 2020s Base Case at 60% 5:42 – Optimistic Scenario: What Happens If the War Ends Quickly? 6:59 – Why Industry Analysts Remain Bullish on Earnings Outlook 7:50 – Comparing This Oil Shock to the 1970s and 2022 Russia-Ukraine Invasion 9:52 – Forward Earnings as a Key Economic Indicator 11:50 – Dual Market Risks: Overly Optimistic Earnings vs Downward Repricing 13:14 – Correction vs Bear Market – Why This Looks Like a 10-15% Pullback So Far 14:48 – Geopolitical Scenario: What If the US Walks Away Tomorrow? 15:27 – Damage to LNG Production, Pipelines, and Long-Term Boost to US Energy Exports 19:20 – Why Ed Is Still Targeting 7,700 on the S&P 500 19:57 – How the Conflict Could Increase Global Demand for Safer US Energy Supplies 24:06 – The Return of Worldwide Bond Market Vigilantes 24:37 – Rising Bond Yields, Inflation Risks, Defense Spending, and Fiscal Stimulus 28:04 – Timing: When Would Ed Raise Recession Odds Further? (Weeks, Not Months) 30:07 – Worst-Case Escalation and Widespread Energy Infrastructure Damage 32:33 – Oil as a Global Commodity – High Prices Cure High Prices via New Supply 35:25 – Potential International Naval Response in the Persian Gulf 38:00 – Would a Quick Successful Resolution Help or Hurt Trump in the Midterms? 41:10 – How Concerned Is Ed About Cracks in the Private Credit Market? 48:58 – Investment Advice: Dividend Stocks, Energy, Tech Opportunities, and Long-Term Strategy 52:48 – Nibbling on Panics – When and How to Add to Positions _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter. We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such. We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance. All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video. Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Thoughtful-Money-Disclosure-Document-12.6.23.pdf?pid=227 Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Thoughtful-Money-Agreement-Agreement.docx?pid=227 IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance. Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC. Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.