When will AI automate all mental work, and how fast?

Video Description

Economist Tom Davidson’s 2023 “compute-centric” model answers two questions: when could AI automate all current cognitive labor, and how fast might that transition happen? Davidson's model considers the resources required to train increasingly capable AI systems (compute × algorithmic efficiency) and the rate at which these resources grow. Simulating the model suggests a median arrival of AI that can automate 100% of human cognitive labor in 2043, with the jump from 20% to 100% automation taking roughly three years. Dive deeper or test alternative assumptions for yourself: • Interactive website — https://takeoffspeeds.com • Tom Davidson's report — https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/what-a-compute-centric-framework-says-about-takeoff-speeds/ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOURCES & READINGS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Play around with the model at https://takeoffspeeds.com/ What a Compute-Centric Framework Says About Takeoff Speeds, by Tom Davidson: https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/what-a-compute-centric-framework-says-about-takeoff-speeds/ Data on notable AI models, by Epoch AI: https://epoch.ai/data/notable-ai-models?view=table#explore-the-data Interview with Ajeya Cotra about measuring the growth of AI: https://youtu.be/nNSHP8L-K_I ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATREON, MEMBERSHIP, MERCH▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ 🟠 Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rationalanimations 🔵 Channel membership: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgqt1RE0k0MIr0LoyJRy2lg/join 🟢 Merch: https://rational-animations-shop.fourthwall.com 🟤 Ko-fi, for one-time and recurring donations: https://ko-fi.com/rationalanimations ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOCIAL & DISCORD▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Rational Animations Discord: https://discord.gg/5Y3Dwz89yH Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/RationalAnimations/ X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/RationalAnimat1 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/rationalanimations/ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATRONS & MEMBERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Felix Akkermans Joshua AC Odet Abadia John Fraser Cain Michael Hewitt ttw Ellis Jones Danilo Stefani - Alessandra Erba Amir Saboury Forodriac Origamius JanJan Tristan Logan J McMillan Matthew Shinkle Alex Amadori SQRT42Pi David Piepgrass Tomas Campos Jana Ingvi Gautsson BlueNotesBlues Terberlo.dog Michael Andregg Vladimir Silyaev Alcher Black RMR Kristin Lindquist Nathan Metzger Glenn Tarigan NMS James Babcock Colin Ricardo Tor Barstad steven michaels Apuis Retsam Stuart Alldritt Chris Painter Juan Benet Christian Loomis Tomarty Edward Yu Chad M Jones Honyopenyoko Neal Strobl bparro Danealor loopuleasa Craig Falls Alex Hall Ivan Bachcin joe39504589 Klemen Slavic blasted0glass Scott Alexander noggieB Dawson John Slape Gabriel Ledung Jeroen De Dauw Superslowmojoe Nathan Fish Bleys Goodson Ducky rictic Luke Freeman Gdsf ronvil rx Lazy Scholar BestProGaming 7ic7ac Devin King RED Rinthean Thomas Grip Boris Bend J H Richard Stambaugh Teo Val Ken Mc Alcher Black AWyattLife Torstein Haldorsen MichaÅ‚ ZieliÅ„ski ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CREDITS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Director: Hannah Levingstone | @hannah_luloo Writers: Allen Liu Producer: Emanuele Ascani Art Director: Hané Harnett | @Peony_Vibes / @peonyvibes (insta) Line Producer: Kristy Steffens | https://linktr.ee/kstearb Production Managers: Jay McMichen | @Jay_TheJester Kristy Steffens | https://linktr.ee/kstearb Quality Assurance Lead: Lara Robinowitz | @CelestialShibe Storyboard Artists: Hannah Levingstone | @hannah_luloo Ira Klages | @dux Animators: Colors Giraldo | @colorsofdoom Dee Wang | @DeeWangArt Ethan DeBoer https://linktr.ee/deboer_art Ira Klages | @dux Jay McMichen | @Jay_TheJester Jodi Kuchenbecker | @viral_genesis (insta) Jordan Gilbert | @Twin_Knight (twitter) Twin Knight Studios (YT)" Keith Kavanagh | @johnnycigarettex Lara Robinowitz | @CelestialShibe Michela Biancini Owen Peurois | @owenpeurois Patrick O' Callaghan | @patrick.h264 Patrick Sholar | @Sholarscribbles Renan Kogut | @kogut_r Skylar O'Brien | @mutodaes Vaughn Oeth | @gravy_navy Zack Gilbert | @Twin_Knight (twitter) Twin Knight Studios (YT) Layout / Paint & Asset Artists: Hané Harnett | @peonyvibes (insta) @peony_vibes (twitter) Zoe Martin-Parkinson | @zoemar_son Compositing: Renan Kogut | @kogut_r Ira Klages | @dux Patrick O' Callaghan | @patrick.h264 Narrator: Rob Miles | https://www.youtube.com/c/robertmilesai VO Editor: Tony Dipiazza Original Soundtrack & Sound Design: Epic Mountain | https://www.instagram.com/epicmountainmusic/