時事觀察—霍詠強:日本、泰國執政黨勝選都靠這一招?

singtaotv星電視 February 12, 2026
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🐴【moremallda.com 新春年貨市場 | 全美通行】 🧧 新春優惠:滿 $100 享 5% 折扣|滿 $150 免運費|滿 $300 送贈品|滿 $1000 再送限量金馬 👉 年貨立即入手:https://www.moremallda.com 20260211 霍詠強 《日本、泰國執政黨勝選都靠同樣技倆?》 執政黨怎樣可以贏得選舉?靠嚇!當然靠的不是威嚇選民,而是透過挑動隣近對手國家,達到吹噓國際威脅,甚至是挑起戰爭,爭取選民的情緒化支持。 所以這個世界之不靖是有明顯的原因的。最近連續兩個執政黨大勝的選舉,都是靠製造外界的軍事或經濟壓迫來轉移視綫、甚至赢得支持的。 日本和泰國採取的手法,幾乎同出一轍,因此年底美國選舉關鍵,就在於「玩得有多大」,民主黨就要選擇壓制或是借勢,但傳統上這套玩法,民主黨仍在共和黨之上。 日本和泰國玩得有多相似? 先說泰國,去年9月總理阿努廷通過得到人民黨支持上台後,雙方就迅速分裂,11月合艾大規模淹水事件暴露了政府救災安排欠佳與管理缺失、支持率暴跌12%,僅剩12.3%,整體政治滿意度更低至個位數。政治危機當前,軍事行動自然又成為最佳選擇,反正作為強硬派的代表,還擊柬埔寨是最佳選擇,但這次泰國更找到了一個毫無破綻的說法——打擊電信詐騙。 從泰國以摧毀電騙為由攻擊柬埔寨的短短幾天,阿努廷支持度已經大幅回升,並且連帶宣布解散下議院、提早大選。當時他上任尚不足100天,且正值泰柬邊境衝突,此舉明顯是借民族主義情緒攫取政治利益的戰略安排。自豪泰黨已獲得其中的193席;主要對手人民黨獲得118席、為泰黨更僅獲得74席,雖然仍要爭取60席支持才過半數,但因其他少數黨派共計獲得115席,以中間路線爭取251名下議院議員支持並不困難。 日本高市早苗方法幾乎相同,上台不久在前虎後狼,經濟不景、無力扭轉。於是把心一橫,反正一向和中國關係不善,直踩紅線。共衛台灣並不是單一事件,和韓國有爭議的獨島以及和俄羅斯的歷史關係,最新鮮的無核三原則,每件都是對隣里關係製造麻煩。 挑起軍事矛盾永遠是政治家最有效的工具。高市早苗內閣成為近年來日本認受性最高的政府,比石破茂當政時期足足高了超越兩成。於是,同樣借勢宣布大選。 日本選舉結果,執政聯盟獲得352個席位,自民黨獲316席,日本維新會36席,執政聯盟席位不僅過半,突破“絕對穩定多數”(310席)門檻,遠超多數事前的預測與輿論鋪墊。選舉前,30歲以下的日本年輕人中,超過90%的人支持高市早苗。在社交媒體X上,高市擁有約260萬粉絲;主要反對黨領袖的粉絲數只有6.4萬,相差40多倍。 高市勝選中美也成為助力,特朗普的直接支持外,中國也間接幫忙,本來在回敬高市早苗的言論後,中國商務部在1月6日才宣布並實施了涵蓋稀土、稀有金屬在內的數百種兩用物項管制,誰料日本傳媒卻在選前兩天的關鍵時段釋放的“中國批准稀土出口”消息,共同社援引多名貿易消息人士的獨家爆料:中國有關部門在加強對日出口管制後,已經批准了多項對日稀土出口申請。 結果,事件被自民黨選舉策略成功塑造為外交勝利,讓執政聯盟和日本人覺得對華強硬是明智選擇,加劇了日本人視高市為勝利的領導。 為何中國人稀土這一核心戰略物資卻率先獲得了網開一面的特權呢?一方面中國並未完全禁制,而這些獲批的出口申請,是在中國加強管制前提交的。日本是故意亂放消息,達到誘導選民的目的。 之前已經用過稀土一次。為緩解稀土依賴中國,日本炒作“地球號”探測船在南鳥島6000米深海成功回收稀土泥,計劃2027年啟動大規模試採,然而日本高調宣稱的“深海稀土開采9000萬噸”,同樣是一場“昂貴的政治表演”,而且是2012年的舊聞。 但是高市往後如何應對中國? 高市早苗的背景,決定了她的涉台舉動帶有強烈的反華意圖:作為首位女首相,她需要鞏固黨內保守派支持,迎合日本右翼勢力,同時借台灣問題提升日本在印太地區的戰略影響力。上台後的這些行為,是想藉中美博弈加劇的背景下,主動構建對華包圍網,通過支持台灣問題牽制中國大陸的崛起。 但是,既然目標達到了,高市的考慮點也會改變。 一時情緒勒索對選民有用,但要保住經濟,和中國長期對抗會製造極大麻煩。反正現在選出了極大優勢,經得起消耗。 ----- 本材料由 Chinese Information Radio代表星島新聞集團有限公司發佈,更多相關信息可從華盛頓特區司法部獲得。" 請加入成為會員, 支持良心正派傳媒。 Join this channel to get access to perks: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYWSlgQB1BpfQTkNm_P5qIw/join 請星電視飲茶https://www.buymeacoffee.com/singtaousa

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