The Real Reason Putin Is Provoking NATO

Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics September 23, 2025
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Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics

@pkurzin

About

I’m Pyotr Kurzin, host of The Global Gambit. I’ve spent years working across Africa and Eastern Europe with the World Bank and the International Crisis Group, and trained in strategic studies and economic statecraft at Johns Hopkins SAIS. This isn’t second-hand commentary — it’s first-hand field and policy experience brought straight to you. Everyone has biases — but the only way to really grow is to test them, step out of our comfort zones, and avoid echo chambers. That’s exactly what this channel is for. Pyotr prides himself in engaging all sides. SUPPORT THE SHOW ○ Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit ○ Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit FOLLOW FOR MORE ○ X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin ○ Substack: https://pyotrskurzin.substack.com/ For media or partnership enquiries email: [email protected]

Video Description

Russian jets crossing into NATO airspace aren’t just minor provocations — they’re stress-tests of the alliance itself. What looks like a routine violation is actually a probe into NATO’s will to defend its most vulnerable frontier. In the Baltics, troops and armour are ready, but readiness is not the same as certainty. Every violation forces NATO into the same dilemma: respond with force and risk escalation, or hold back and risk credibility. At the same time, Washington’s commitment is clouded by politics, leaving Europe scrambling to imagine a defence without America. And inside Russia, pressure is mounting — from a grinding war economy to cracks in the regime’s own stability. So in this video, I break down how Putin’s provocations are exposing NATO’s weak points, why European autonomy may be the alliance’s only safety net, and what all this means for the credibility of Article Five. Is this just another round of brinkmanship — or the start of NATO’s ultimate test? 👉 Let me do the overthinking for you. Support me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit ✍️ Get my newsletter: https://pyotrskurzin.substack.com/. Because the world’s a mess, and someone needs to mock it intelligently. ☕ KEEP ME CAFFINATED ☕ https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit ✨ LETS CONNECT ✨ https://twitter.com/PKurzin https://www.instagram.com/pyotrsfootprints/ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... https://bsky.app/profile/pyotrkurzin.bsky.social 🚨 YOUTUBE MEMBERSHIP 🚨 https://www.youtube.com/@theglobalgambit/membership Chapters 00:00 NATO's Commitment to Eastern Europe 01:20 The Role of Deterrence in NATO's Strategy 02:57 The Hardline Perspective on Responding to Russia 04:37 The Dilemma of Escalation vs. Restraint 09:12 Internal Pressures and Strategic Calculations 11:00 The Future of NATO's Credibility #ukraine #russia #putin #internationalrelations #geopolitics #nato

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